Another method I used for displaying the waves and wave volume simply involved the use of a close‐only line chart with a volume histogram. It, too, served me well. One missing ingredient, however, was time. Whenever the duration of a wave was unusually large, I noted it on the chart. Eventually, I found someone to write a program for the wave chart. No longer were the waves plotted equidistantly. The space between the waves reflected the duration of a wave, and the width of the volume bars was also a function of time. From that point, I had all three elements necessary for tape reading: length, volume, and duration of waves. In the discussion of bonds on June 15 and 19, 2001, I made numerous references to these three elements when appropriate. The tabular listing of the data made this possible. But with the new chart it became readily apparent at a glance. It allowed me to experiment with wave charts made from any time period. Suddenly, I saw price waves that lasted many days, and the wave volume told a better story than on the hourly or daily charts. The reason is simple. Price movement does not unfold in bundles of equal time periods; it unfolds in waves. Wyckoff and early tape readers clearly understood this fact and therefore studied the alternating buying and selling waves gleaned from the stock ticker. Dissecting price movement into time periods does not impede one’s view of the trend. But volume subdivided into equal chunks of time does interfere with one’s ability to discern the true force of the buying and the selling. In a sense, the message of the volume is lost in time.
我用来显示波浪和波段成交量的另一种方法，就是直接使用带有成交量的收盘竹线图。我用的很好。但是，它所欠缺的要素就是时间。每当一波走势的持续时间特别长的时候，我就将它标在图上。终于，我发现有人针对波形图写了一套程序。波浪不再被等距离地绘制。两波走势之间的间距反映了波浪的持续时间，成交量柱的宽度也反映了时间。从那时起，我拥有了分析盘口所需要的三个要素：波段幅度，成交量和持续时间。在讨论2001年6月15日和19日的债券时，我在必要时大量地参考了这三种要素。这种数据的表格列举使得这成为可能。但是有了这种新图表，它就变得一目了然。它让我能够使用各种时间周期下的波浪图。意外的是，我看到了持续很多天的波浪，并且与小时图或日线图上的成交量相比，波形成交量能把故事讲述得更好。原因很简单。价格运动不再按照相同的时间段展示。它以波浪的方式来展示。威科夫和早期的盘口分析者清楚地理解这一点，他们根据股票自动收报机上的数据研究买盘波和卖盘波的力量对比。将价格运动按时间段分析，并不妨碍对趋势的判断。但是，将成交量按等分的时间段来分解，却实实在在地影响了人们判断真实的买入和卖出力量的能力。在某种程度上说，成交量信息随着时间而消失。
To illustrate the point, Figure 10.1 of the December 2012 euro contract is presented here. First, though, let me explain the chart. For intraday currency or forex trading, I prefer a sensitive tick bar chart. I also look at time‐based charts, but the construction of the tick bar is not limited by a set amount of time. Thus, under volatile trading conditions, one 250‐tick bar may span a few seconds, and at other times it may last 20 minutes or more. Larger tick bar charts are also useful for visualizing the broader price structure. For example, I sometimes look at the 5,000‐tick bar for currencies or the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 9000 tick bar. Figure 10.1 shows a three‐pip wave constructed from 250‐tick bar closes on September 18, 2012. The total contract volume for each tick bar is also included. Starting from the left side of the chart, we first notice the large up‐wave with 5,400 volume. This is the heaviest up‐volume in about four hours. The shortening of the upward thrust on the up‐move stands out clearly. It says the trend is tiring. Supply appears on the first down‐wave, where the 4,100 volume is the largest to date. Compare this bearish change in behavior to wave 6 in Figure 9.12, where demand first appeared. On the subsequent up‐wave, the 1,100 volume signaled weak demand and offered an excellent entry point for selling short.
图10.1为欧元2012年12月合约的走势图。先解释一下这张图表。对于日内现汇或外汇交易，我更偏爱敏感的跳动图62。我也看与时间有关的图表，但是跳动图的构造不限于固定时间周期。因此，在交投活跃的情况下，250跳动棒可能占用几秒钟，而在另一些时候，它可能持续20分钟甚至更多。更大的跳动图对于看到更广泛的价格结构很有用。例如，有时候，我也接受现汇5000‐tick bar，或者标准普尔的9000‐tick bar。图10.1显示了一个3点波浪，构造自2012年9月18日的250‐tick bar。每跳所对应的总合约数也在图中。从图的左边开始，我们首先看到一波大涨，成交量为5400。这是大约四小时内的最大涨量。在这波上涨中，SOT非常显眼。它说明趋势正在衰竭。供给出现在第一波下跌浪中，成交量4100是迄今为止最大的。将此处的走势转跌的变化与图9.12里的最早出现需求的波浪6进行比较。在接下来的上涨浪中，成交量为1100，说明需求很弱，提供了极好的卖空进场点。
For the most part, the tick bar volume looks like the tree line on the horizon. We can find little differentiation between the volumes, where as the cumulative wave volume shows the peaks and troughs of trading activity. Nowhere is this more important than on the 1,100‐contract pullback where the tick bar volume shows little change. Similarly, the 4,100‐contract decline from the high does not stand out as heavy volume on the tick‐bar histogram. Within the decline from the high, the down‐waves span 13, 19, 19, and 4 pips, respectively. The individual times per wave are 10, 16, 4, and 2 minutes. Add to this picture their diminished wave volume, and the turnaround from the 9:38 a.m. EDT low is obvious. One final observation: the next to last down‐wave covered as much ground (19 pips) as its preceding wave. Yet it lasted only 4 minutes. The speed of this down‐wave reflects climactic action as the trapped longs are stumbling over one another to sell out. It tells anyone who is short to start taking profits and/or jamming their buy stops to within a few ticks of the last print. Would‐be buyers should move to the edge of their seat in anticipation of a short‐covering rally. Twenty‐two minutes after the final low, the euro traded at 1.3077.
大多数情况下，跳动成交量看起来像是在水平面上林木线。鉴于累积的波段成交量显示了交易活动的波峰与波谷，我们可以看到这些成交量之间的微小差异。没有任何地方比1100合约数的回撤更重要了，这里跳动成交量显示了微小的变化。相似地，始于高点且成交量为4100合约数的下跌，并不像跳动柱状图上的巨量那样显眼。在始于高点的这波下跌中，下跌波间距（价差）13，19，19和4。每波占用的时间分别是10分钟，16分钟，4分钟和2分钟。加上波浪成交量的减少，因此上午9:38分低点的转折，就非常明显了。最终的观察报告是：在最后一波下跌浪之后，下一波走势达到了19点，和它之前的下跌浪是一样的。但是，它只持续了4分钟。这波下跌浪的速度反映了高潮活动，被套多头恐慌抛售。这表明做空者开始兑现利润，或者将止损调整到前高附近。买家应该准备好参与空头回补引发的反弹。见到最低点22分钟之后，欧元达到1.3077。
Figure 10.2 shows a 3‐minute chart of June 2011 Australian dollar. I have removed the individual 5‐minute bars. The minimum wave size, or reversal, is 3 pips. The minutes per wave are plotted at the wave turning points. Now look at the rise from 1:15 p.m. EST. We see the three up‐waves spanned 12, 36, and 6 minutes, respectively. Their lengths are 10, 21, and 5 pips, with volumes of 1896, 2038, and 1305 contracts. The diminished time, length, and volume on the waves reveals the market’s weakening condition. They tell the tape reader to take profits on long positions. Wyckoff would advocate taking profits and immediately going short in such a position. The volume histogram is cumulative. The 27‐minute down‐wave consists of nine 3‐minute time periods and the total volume increases evenly until the ninth period of this wave, where it bulges. This format helps one see the spurts of volume that often occur at tops and bottoms of waves. For another example, look at the volume jump in the last period of the 6‐minute up‐wave to the high. Within the decline from the high, all of the rallies are small and short lived. They can be used to add to a short position or to get aboard if one failed to recognize the top. The same can be said about the small, low-volume corrections during the preceding rally. Currency futures and corresponding forex markets offer a unique feature, as the 3‐pip wave size can be used on each one. This allows the trader to move from one to the other in search of the best setup without having to reconfigure the wave setting.
图10.2为澳元2011年6月合约的三分钟波形图。最小的波浪大小或反转是3。每波的分钟数标识在波段转折点。现在，请看始于东部时间下午1:15分的上升。我们看到三波上涨的时间跨度分别为12分钟、36分钟和6分钟，对应的幅度是10点，21点和5点，成交量分别为1896合约数，2038合约数和1305合约数。减少的时间，幅度和成交量表明市场正在走弱。它们告诉盘口分析者兑现多头利润。威科夫将会提倡兑现利润，并且在此位置做空。成交量柱形图是累积的。27分钟下跌浪由9个3‐pip构成，总的成交量一直在均匀地增加，直到第9个3‐pip，在此它突然激增。这种格式帮助交易者看到成交量的爆发，爆发常常出现在顶部或底部。再举一个例子，请看在见顶的6分钟上涨里，最后一个3‐pip的成交量突增。在始于该顶点的下跌中，所有的上涨都很小并且时间很短。如果交易者此前未能识别出顶部的话，那么它们可以用来增加空头头寸或者进场交易。对于在前面上涨期间里出现的低成交量的小幅回调，也可以说同样的话。现汇期货和对应的外汇市场提供了一种独特的特征，因为对于两者来说，3点都是可以用的。这就让交易者在寻找最好的交易条件时，可以从其中一个转到另一个，而不需要重新调整波浪设置。
When trading, I often superimpose the wave chart on top of the price bars. This allows the trend lines, channels, and support/resistance lines to be drawn from the precise highs and lows. Lines drawn on a chart like the Australian dollar, where the price bars are hidden, still work well. I always like to filter as much data as possible. This way much of the intraday distraction and ambiguity is removed. Because intraday price bars can give mixed messages, their removal makes it easier to hold a position that might otherwise be closed out prematurely—an affliction suffered by many traders.
在交易时，我经常在价格K线图上添加波浪图。这就让趋势线，通道和支撑线以及阻力线，可以画在精确的高点和低点。像澳元这样的画线方式，虽然隐去了K线，但是仍然很有效。我总是喜欢尽可能多地过滤数据。按照这种方式，可以过滤掉很多日内的杂乱和模棱两可。因为日内K线有杂音，使用波形图更容易坚守头寸，否则这些头寸会被过早地平仓——很多交易者都承受过这样的烦恼。
Figure 10.3 shows all the important lines on the May 2011 NY copper wave chart. It is constructed from 5‐minute closes and uses a 0.0025 reversal. The minimum tick in copper is 0.0005 valued at $12.50. Thus, a 1‐cent move from 4.38 to 4.39, equals $250. The chart provides a tour de force of wave analysis. Wave time and volume are plotted at the turning points. Starting from the 8:40 a.m. EST low, copper rallies over 2.5 cents in 35 minutes. Next, we see seven waves of lateral movement in which the volume diminishes. Notice the fifth wave where the market slips 1.40 cents on rounded volume of 300 contracts. The next down‐wave spans 0.60 cents on volume of 200 contracts. The two waves span 5 minutes and 10 minutes, respectively. Many times a 10‐minute wave will have larger volume than a 5‐minute wave when they occur consecutively. The small volume and size of the latter tell us May copper is on the springboard, an ideal place to go long. The following up‐wave runs 2.65 cents in 55 minutes and speaks of strong demand. No supply appears on the 10‐minute reaction. The next up‐wave gains another 1.25 cents in only 25 minutes, but volume falls sharply. It is the first sign of weakening demand. From this point, the action of the sellers begins to dominate the chart.
图10.3给出了纽约铜2011年5月合约波形图的所有重要画线。它是根据五分钟收盘价绘制的，使用0.0025作为反转。铜的最小跳动是0.0005，对应价差是12.50美元。因此，从4.38到4.39移动1美分，就等于250美元。这张图提供了一项波浪分析的绝技。波段时间和成交量标示在转折点上。从东部时间早晨8:40的低点开始，铜在35分钟内上涨了2.5美分。接下来，我们看到七波横盘走势，从左至右成交量在减少。请注意，第五波市场下跌了1.4美分，成交量约为300合约数。随后的下跌为0.6美分，成交量是200合约数。这两波走势分别用时5分钟和10分钟。很多时候，在连续出现时，10分钟走势将会比5分钟具有更大的成交量。后者的低成交量和小幅走势告诉我们，5月铜正站在起跳板上，一个理想的做多位置。接下来的上涨浪在55分钟里涨了2.65美分，说明需求强烈。在10分钟的回调里，没有出现供给。随后的上涨在25分钟里涨了1.25美分，但是成交量迅速下降。这是第一个需求减弱的信号。从这里开始，供应开始主控。
After two small waves, down and up, an overtly bearish change in behavior occurs. Copper has a shallow decline but it lasts 30 minutes, the most downtime since the 8:40 a.m. low. It is also the largest sell‐off since copper lifted off the springboard. Now the market has a fast rally above the previous high. In the third 5‐minute bar of this rally, the wave volume triples and prices close well off the high—a potential upthrust. The next down-wave extends slightly below the low of the previous sell‐off; it is larger and spans another 30 minutes. The change in trend has become obvious. Prices now creep a mere 0.30 cents higher over the next 45 minutes underscoring the total lack of demand. (Wyckoff described this as a springboard position prior to markdown.)The low angle of advance on this last up‐wave shows how much difficulty copper had on this rally. Such information was not as apparent on the tape reading charts. From the April 21 high, copper prices fell 40 cents over the next nine sessions.
经过两波小幅上涨和下跌，明显的走势转跌变化出现了。铜出现了微幅下跌，但是它持续了30分钟，自早上8:40低点以来的最长下跌时间。它也是自从起跳板上爆拉以来最大的下跌。现在，市场快速涨至前期高点之上。在这波上涨的第三个五分钟K线里，波段成交量增长三倍，股价收盘远离高点——潜在的UT。随后的下跌略微超过前期的低点。它幅度更大，也占用了30分钟。趋势的变化变得很明显。价格在接下来的45分钟里只爬升了0.3美分，更突显了需求的总体不足。（威科夫将这描述为下跌之前的跳板。）最后一波上涨的上升角度很缓，显示铜的上涨非常费力。这些信息并不出现在盘口分析图上。从4月21日高点开始，在接下来的9个交易期内（27分钟），铜下跌了40美分。
Figure 10.4 presents a 0.50‐point wave atop a 5‐minute chart of the June 2011 S&P contract on May 6, 2011. It shows the kind of trading turn that one sees every day. For the S&P, wave volumes are noted in thousands of contracts. Here we see a resistance line at 1349.50, which is penetrated a few hours later. The volume reaches the highest level for any previous up‐wave and the S&P appears at the beginning of a larger rally. Anyone who trades the S&P regularly knows to be on guard for a whipsaw whenever a new high or low is made. It’s the nature of the beast. The reaction off this high draws out the heaviest volume in the last five down–waves, but it’s not overt. Its modest size makes it seem less threatening. But the next up‐wave speaks to us: no ease of upward movement, no demand, potential upthrust on previous up‐wave, and the risk to the previous high is only 0.75 points or $37.50 per contract. You can’t ask for anything better. A short can be entered as soon as the wave shows a 0.50‐point reversal. Twenty‐five minutes later, the S&P traded 7.25 points lower. By 2:40 p.m., it had fallen another 11 points—all this from a subtle change in behavior.
图10.4是2011年5月6日标准普尔2011年6月合约的五分钟图，转向设置0.5点。这是一种我们每天都看到的一种交易转向。对于标准普尔来说，波浪成交量计数单位为千合约（K)。这里，我们看到阻力线位于1349.50，它在几小时后被跌破。与前期所有上涨相比，成交量达到了最大值，标准普尔看起来处于更大的上涨起点。常做标普交易的人，都知道在创新高或创新低的时候，要防止两面受挫。这是市场残酷的本性。始于高点的价格回落，在过去的五波下跌里，产生了最大的成交量。但是，这个高量并不明显。中等幅度的成交量，看起来不是太恐怖。但是，接下来的上涨告诉我们：与前一波上涨相比，此波不是up-EOM，这波上涨表现出ND的特征 ，这是潜在的UT，距离前高只有0.75点，或每合约37.5美元。你不能要求更好了。空头应该在此波0.5点反转时，马上进场做空。25分钟后，标准普尔下跌了7.25点。到了下午2:40，它又下跌了11点——所有这些都源于微妙的走势变化。
